Video poker games are advertised with return-to-player (RTP) figures like 99.54% or even 100.17%. These numbers sound incredible compared to slots, which typically sit between 94% and 96%. But these published percentages are only achievable under perfect play.
RTP is the percentage of all money wagered that a game returns to players over a large number of hands. A 99.54% RTP means that for every $100 bet, the game returns $99.54 on average, leaving a house edge of just 0.46%. But unlike slots, video poker RTP is conditional. It assumes every single decision is made with mathematical precision on every hand.
The Gap Between Published and Actual RTP
Research and industry data put the average video poker player well below the published RTP figures.
| Player Type | Estimated Actual RTP (Jacks or Better 9/6) |
|---|---|
| Perfect strategy player | 99.54% |
| Experienced recreational player | 97.5%-98.5% |
| Casual player, some strategy knowledge | 95%-97% |
| Beginner, no strategy | 91%-94% |
The published 99.54% is real, but it belongs only to the top row. Every level below it represents strategy errors compounding across hundreds of hands. Thankfully, closing this gap is a learnable skill. It requires understanding the right framework and putting in practice time.
Understanding Pay Tables
Video poker RTP is calculated based on the specific pay table attached to the game. Two machines both labeled “Jacks or Better” can carry very different RTPs depending on how they pay for full houses and flushes. The most referenced benchmark is 9/6 Jacks or Better. This version carries the 99.54% RTP.
Compare that to common pay table variations:
| Pay Table | Full House | Flush | RTP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6 Jacks or Better | 9 | 6 | 99.54% |
| 8/6 Jacks or Better | 8 | 6 | 98.39% |
| 8/5 Jacks or Better | 8 | 5 | 97.30% |
| 7/5 Jacks or Better | 7 | 5 | 96.15% |
| 6/5 Jacks or Better | 6 | 5 | 95.00% |
Each one-unit reduction in the full house or flush payout drops the RTP by roughly 1 to 1.5 percentage points. Playing perfect strategy on a 6/5 machine gives you 95% despite using the same disciplined approach. The first step toward achieving published RTP is finding the right pay table.
What Does Perfect Strategy Looks Like?
Perfect strategy in video poker means holding and discarding cards in the exact order that maximizes expected value (EV) on every hand. This order is determined by mathematical analysis of all possible outcomes from each decision. For 9/6 Jacks or Better, the strategy is expressed as a ranked list of hold combinations. You work down the list and play the highest-ranked hand available.
A simplified version of the top holds in priority order:
| Priority | Hold This |
|---|---|
| 1 | Royal flush (pat hand) |
| 2 | Straight flush (pat hand) |
| 3 | Four of a kind |
| 4 | Four cards to a royal flush |
| 5 | Full house, flush, straight |
| 6 | Three of a kind |
| 7 | Four cards to a straight flush |
| 8 | Two pair |
| 9 | High pair (Jacks or better) |
| 10 | Three cards to a royal flush |
| 11 | Low pair |
| 12 | Four cards to a flush |
The order here is important. Notice that four cards to a royal flush rank above a pat flush or straight. The expected value of drawing to a royal flush outweighs locking in a lower guaranteed payout. This is where casual players lose the most ground, since they may hold what looks safe.
The Most Common Strategy Mistakes
Knowing where players go wrong is as valuable as knowing the correct strategy. These are the errors that cost the most RTP percentage points.
- Keeping a kicker with a pair. Holding a pair of aces plus an extra ace-high card feels natural but is wrong. The kicker reduces the chances of improving to three of a kind, full house, or four of a kind.
- Breaking a low pair to chase a flush draw. Four cards to a flush looks tempting. But a low pair holds more expected value than a four-flush in most scenarios. Players regularly give up guaranteed EV chasing the prettier hand.
- Holding all five cards when a draw exists. A pat straight or flush is worth keeping. But some players hold pat low hands and miss the better EV play because they are risk-averse.
- Discarding to draw at a royal when the expected value doesn’t support it. Not every three-card royal draw is worth breaking a strong made hand. The full strategy table accounts for this.
Myths About Video Poker RTP
- The machine controls when you win, so strategy doesn’t matter. Video poker uses a certified random number generator (RNG) that deals cards randomly on every hand. Unlike slots, the outcome is not predetermined. Your hold decisions directly change the mathematical result of every hand. Strategy is the only variable you control, and it has a measurable impact on your return.
- Playing max coins doesn’t matter. This one may cost players significant RTP. The royal flush on most video poker machines pays 250 coins per coin wagered on one through four coins, but jumps to 800 coins per coin wagered on five coins (max bet). This jump from 250 to 800 is worth approximately 1.8% in RTP on 9/6 Jacks or Better.
- All Jacks or Better games have the same RTP. As the pay table comparison above shows, the name means nothing without checking the actual payout numbers. A 6/5 Jacks or Better game carries an RTP nearly 4.5 percentage points lower than a 9/6 version. Always check the pay table before playing.
- Video poker strategy is too complicated to learn. Full perfect strategy for 9/6 Jacks or Better involves roughly 30 ranked hold combinations. Most of the decisions on most hands are intuitive once you understand the basic framework. Tools like strategy cards can bridge the gap while you are learning. Online video poker trainers let you practice in real time, flagging every mistake and explaining the correct play.
- A hot or cold machine is a real thing. Each hand in video poker is an independent event. The game does not have a memory of previous hands. A machine that paid a royal flush has the same probability of paying another one on the next hand as any other machine at any other time. Chasing “hot” machines or avoiding “cold” ones has zero effect on your return.
Tools That Help You Get to Published RTP
Nobody memorizes perfect strategy overnight. These tools make the learning process practical:
- Strategy cards. These are pocket-sized printed guides covering the hold hierarchy for specific game variants. Legal to use at most casinos and in all online environments.
- Video poker training software. Programs like Video Poker for Winners or free browser-based trainers deal hands and grade every decision in real time. Consistent practice with a trainer is the fastest route to internalizing correct play.
- Pay table calculators. Tools that let you enter the pay table of any machine and receive the exact RTP and full strategy. They are useful when you encounter an unfamiliar variant.
- Mobile apps. Several well-reviewed apps combine training, strategy lookup, and pay table analysis in one place.
How Long Does It Take?
It takes consistent practice to achieve near-perfect strategy. Most players who use a trainer regularly report reaching 99%+ strategy accuracy within four to six weeks of daily 30-minute sessions. The financial impact of this improvement is real:
| Strategy Accuracy | RTP on 9/6 JoB | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| 100% (perfect) | 99.54% | 0.46% |
| 99% | 99.08% | 0.92% |
| 97% | 97.57% | 2.43% |
| 95% | 96.06% | 3.94% |
Closing the gap from 95% to 99% accuracy cuts the house edge by more than three percentage points.
Conclusion
Published video poker RTP figures are mathematically accurate. But they require perfect play on every single hand, on the right pay table, at max coins. The path to these numbers is clear. Find a 9/6 pay table or its equivalent in your preferred variant. Always play five coins. Also, use a strategy card or trainer until correct decisions become instinct. And ignore the myths that suggest the machine, hot streaks, or luck are the primary variables at work.
